Retirement
How much do you need to retire?
A practical way to turn annual spending into a portfolio target, and the incomes that make the target smaller.
The useful retirement number is a portfolio, not a feeling. Build it in four lines.
- Annual spending in today's dollars, including taxes and health insurance you will pay after you leave the job.
- Minus durable income that does not come from the portfolio: a pension already earned, a rental you would keep, Social Security only after you have read your own statement.
- Divided by a withdrawal rate. At 4%, the portfolio is 25 times the remainder. At 3.5%, it is about 29 times.
- Compared with invested assets you can actually spend. A house you live in is shelter first. Count it as retirement capital only if you have a real plan to free the equity.
An illustration
Spending of $80,000, Social Security of $30,000 that has already started, nothing else. The portfolio must cover $50,000. At 4% that is $1.25 million. If Social Security starts ten years after you stop working, you also need a bridge for those ten years. The Coast FIRE page builds that bridge. Ignoring it is how people 'retire' and then sell investments on a schedule they did not write down.
Saving the amount is a different question
Once you have a target, the FIRE calculator takes a current balance, a monthly contribution, and a constant return and estimates the years. Raise the savings rate and the years fall faster than most people expect. The Shockingly Simple Math chart on the compound-interest page shows the from-zero version of that idea.
This is the shape of the question. It is not a retirement date and not advice to leave a job.
Questions
Is there a universal retirement number?
No. A household that spends $45,000 and one that spends $140,000 do not share a target. Start from spending, subtract durable income, and divide the rest by a withdrawal rate you have read about. Salary multiples are a checkpoint, not the answer.